polymarket-auto-trader

What This Skill Does

The polymarket-auto-trader is a sophisticated, autonomous agent designed to interact with Polymarket prediction markets. It functions as a full-stack trading engine, enabling users to programmatically scan active markets, leverage LLM-based probability estimation (via Claude Haiku), and execute trades based on quantitative sizing models like the Kelly Criterion. The skill automates the entire lifecycle of prediction market trading: market discovery, edge identification, risk-adjusted position sizing, and order submission through the Polymarket CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) API. It is built for 24/7 operation, supporting cron-based automation to ensure that no trading opportunity is missed, while providing integrated P&L tracking and strict budget management.

Installation

1. Ensure you have a non-US VPS, as Polymarket restricts US IP addresses.
2. Run the automated setup script: clawhub install openclaw/skills/skills/bobdevibecoder/bobagent-polymarket-auto-trader.
3. Configure your local environment by creating an .env file containing your Polygon wallet private key and your Anthropic API key.
4. Perform necessary contract approvals using the provided approve_contracts.py script to allow the agent to interact with USDC.e and Conditional Token Framework (CTF) contracts.
5. Deploy the trading and tracking scripts to your production directory and configure your crontab to trigger the run_trade.py script at your desired interval (e.g., every 10 minutes).

Use Cases

• Autonomous Prediction Trading: Automatically capitalize on market inefficiencies in political, economic, or cultural prediction markets without manual intervention.
• Automated Research: Use the agent's LLM capability to generate consistent probability estimates for a large volume of markets, serving as an analytical "second opinion" for human traders.
• Risk-Managed Portfolio Growth: Implement strict bankroll management, utilizing the Kelly Criterion to optimize long-term growth while protecting capital from over-exposure.

Example Prompts

• "Set up the polymarket-auto-trader on my VPS and configure it to only trade on markets with a minimum 8% edge."
• "What is my current P&L across all positions for the last 30 days of trading?"
• "Run a scan of current active markets and list the top 3 opportunities where the LLM probability differs most from current market prices."

Tips & Limitations

• VPS Location: Always use a VPS located outside of the United States to ensure compliance with platform terms of service and avoid IP-based blocks.
• Cost Efficiency: The agent uses Claude Haiku to balance cost and performance, but remember to monitor your Anthropic API usage to prevent unexpected billing.
• Risk Management: While the agent uses Kelly Sizing, prediction markets are highly volatile. Always start with a small, test-net amount of capital before scaling.
• Token Requirements: Ensure your wallet is funded with sufficient USDC.e (not native USDC) and MATIC for transaction gas fees to prevent failed orders.