polymarket-correlation

What This Skill Does

The polymarket-correlation skill is a powerful analytical engine designed to detect mispriced correlations between prediction markets on the Polymarket platform. By analyzing the relationship between two distinct markets, it identifies when the market sentiment in one scenario suggests a different outcome than expected in another, effectively finding arbitrage opportunities for AI agents. It processes both specific historical correlation patterns and generalized category-based relationships to deliver actionable buy/sell signals.

Installation

To add this capability to your OpenClaw environment, use the following command in your terminal:

clawhub install openclaw/skills/skills/bobdevibecoder/bobagent-polyedge

Ensure that your environment is configured for Python 3. Once installed, the skill resides in the src/ directory, utilizing polymarket.py for API interaction and patterns.py for defined logic.

Use Cases

• Automated Arbitrage: Agents can monitor related markets (e.g., political events affecting economic indicators) and execute trades when price discrepancies exceed configured risk thresholds.
• Market Sentiment Analysis: Evaluate the logical consistency of market crowds across different sectors like geopolitics, finance, and technology.
• Risk Hedging: Use the insights to identify if a portfolio is over-exposed to contradictory betting positions across the platform.

Example Prompts

1. "Check for correlation opportunities between 'russia-ukraine-ceasefire-before-gta-vi-554' and 'will-china-invades-taiwan-before-gta-vi-716' and tell me if I should execute a trade."
2. "Analyze the correlation between current Fed interest rate policy markets and S&P 500 rally markets. Are there any mispriced assets right now?"
3. "Scan for high-confidence arbitrage signals for the 'technology' category and explain the reasoning behind the signal."

Tips & Limitations

• Threshold Tuning: The system uses confidence thresholds (5% to 12%) to determine signal strength. Adjust these in your configuration to suit your risk tolerance.
• Liquidity Awareness: This skill does not automatically account for market liquidity or potential slippage; always verify order book depth before acting on signals.
• Not Financial Advice: All signals generated are mathematical estimates based on historical trends or user-defined patterns. You are responsible for your own financial decisions. Always cross-reference with live market data.