prediction-market-aggregator

What This Skill Does

The Prediction Market Aggregator is a robust, open-source alternative to DomeAPI designed to unify cross-market data from Polymarket, Manifold, Metaculus, and Kalshi. It acts as a comprehensive intelligence layer for users tracking event-based probabilities. By normalizing data across disparate APIs, the tool enables real-time arbitrage detection, consensus drift tracking, and edge discovery. It specifically bridges the gap between decentralized prediction platforms and regulated binary markets, providing a cohesive view of market sentiment.

Installation

You can install this skill directly via the OpenClaw terminal using the following command:

clawhub install openclaw/skills/skills/jamierossouw/prediction-market-aggregator

Ensure you have configured your respective API keys for Polymarket, Manifold, and Kalshi in your OpenClaw environment variables to enable full functionality.

Use Cases

This skill is engineered for traders, data analysts, and researchers interested in quantitative betting. Key use cases include:

• Arbitrage Scouting: Automatically identifying price discrepancies between platforms to capitalize on inefficient pricing of the same event.
• Sentiment Analysis: Monitoring 'consensus drift' to identify when retail sentiment diverges from superforecasters on platforms like Metaculus.
• High-Conviction Betting: Utilizing the 'Argus' strategy integration, which combines technical analysis signals with market-implied probabilities to filter out noise and isolate high-probability setups.
• Portfolio Risk Management: Tracking event-specific exposure across multiple regulated and unregulated venues simultaneously.

Example Prompts

1. "Is there any actionable arbitrage between Polymarket and Manifold on the upcoming BTC price targets?"
2. "What markets are currently showing the widest consensus gap between Metaculus superforecasters and Polymarket traders?"
3. "Scan for the highest-edge Polymarket bet by comparing current order book pricing against the aggregated cross-market consensus."

Tips & Limitations

To maximize the utility of this skill, rely on Metaculus as your 'source of truth' for long-term probability baselines, as it is generally less volatile than the highly speculative Polymarket CLOB. Be aware that cross-market arbitrage is often limited by liquidity constraints and platform-specific fee structures; verify your expected returns after slippage and transaction costs before executing trades. Finally, ensure your system clock is synchronized to prevent errors during real-time drift calculations. Note that some markets may require secondary authentication via EIP-712 signatures for specific order types.