polymarket-bot

What This Skill Does

The polymarket-bot is a sophisticated, AI-driven automation suite designed for trading 5-minute crypto UP/DOWN markets on the Polymarket platform. It leverages real-time Binance technical analysis—specifically focusing on price position, momentum, RSI, and volume—to calculate high-probability trades. Using a dynamic Kelly Criterion-based betting strategy, the agent automatically manages positions, executes trades via the Polymarket CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) API, and utilizes a Gnosis-safe wallet for secure transactions.

The system includes a robust monitoring layer (position_monitor.py) that employs Bayesian updates to adjust confidence levels in real-time, enabling intelligent stop-loss and take-profit mechanisms. It effectively manages the entire lifecycle of a trade, from initial analysis and automated entry to liquidity-aware exit strategies, ensuring that positions are closed efficiently even in volatile conditions.

Installation

To integrate this skill, use the following CLI command: clawhub install openclaw/skills/skills/hanguang254/polymarket-arb-bot

Post-installation, ensure your environment is configured by exporting your POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY and POLYMARKET_PROXY_ADDRESS. Configure your Telegram notifications within the script to receive real-time execution alerts. The bot is designed to be persistent; we recommend using the included watchdog_v3.sh via a cron job (*/5 * * * *) to ensure 24/7 service stability.

Use Cases

• Automated Prediction Trading: Executing systematic trades on short-duration crypto markets based on quantitative analysis rather than intuition.
• Risk-Managed Position Sizing: Utilizing dynamic Kelly scaling to protect capital during high-volatility events.
• Dynamic Portfolio Management: Automating the exit process of prediction market positions through priority-based stop-loss and pre-emptive sell orders to capture liquidity.

Example Prompts

1. "Polymarket-bot, check the current status of my open positions and run a health check on the monitor process."
2. "Update my strategy parameters: adjust the Kelly betting threshold to require at least 90% confidence for all BTC trades."
3. "Summarize the recent trading performance and logs from the latest 5-minute market sessions."

Tips & Limitations

• Memory Requirements: The bot uses Playwright for browser interactions, which can be memory-intensive. A minimum of 4GB RAM is highly recommended for stable operation.
• Risk Warning: This is an experimental automated trading tool. Always start with small allocations to verify strategy performance.
• Network Dependency: Ensure a high-speed, low-latency connection to maintain priority in the CLOB order book, as speed is critical for favorable exit pricing.