Polymarket Trading Bot

Automated trading bot for Polymarket 5-minute crypto UP/DOWN markets.

Architecture

auto_bot_v2.py (Main Loop)
  → Detects new 5-min markets (BTC/ETH)
  → Fetches Price-To-Beat via Playwright
  → Triggers AI analysis 80-100s before close

ai_analyze_v2.py (Decision Engine)
  → Binance technical analysis
  → Confidence scoring (Position 50%, Momentum 30%, RSI 10%, Volume 10%)
  → Executes bets via Polymarket CLI

monitor_bets.py (Notifications)
  → Monitors logs/bets.jsonl
  → Sends Telegram notifications on new bets

trading_state.py (Risk Management)
  → Tracks wins/losses
  → Enforces cooldown after consecutive losses

Setup

1. Install Polymarket CLI and configure wallet (gnosis-safe mode)
2. Install dependencies: pip install requests playwright
3. Configure Telegram bot token and chat ID in monitor_bets.py
4. Run: python3 -u auto_bot_v2.py > logs/bot.log 2>&1 &

Strategy Parameters

Edit in scripts/ai_analyze_v2.py:

• Confidence threshold: ≥85% (line 63)
• EV threshold: >0.6 (line 64)
• Max odds: <0.85 (line 65)
• Bet size: Fixed 5 shares (Polymarket minimum)

Key Files

• scripts/auto_bot_v2.py - Main monitoring loop
• scripts/ai_analyze_v2.py - AI decision engine with bet execution
• scripts/monitor_bets.py - Telegram notification script
• scripts/trading_state.py - Win/loss tracking and cooldown logic

Important Notes

• 5-minute markets cannot be exited early (orderbook disappears after close)
• Bot uses Binance data; Polymarket resolves via Chainlink (potential discrepancy)
• Minimum order: 5 shares (Polymarket hard limit)
• Uses --signature-type gnosis-safe for all CLI commands