trade-validation

What This Skill Does

The trade-validation skill is a robust, logic-driven framework designed specifically for the rigorous evaluation of prediction market trades on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. It utilizes a 10-dimension weighted scoring matrix to remove emotional bias, enforce strict risk management, and ensure that only high-conviction opportunities are executed. By mandating a minimum weighted score of 80% and implementing a series of hard veto rules, it protects your capital from speculative volatility.

Installation

To install this skill, run the following command in your terminal: clawhub install openclaw/skills/skills/staybased/trade-validation

Use Cases

• Pre-trade Checklist: Systematically evaluate a potential Polymarket position before committing capital.
• Risk Mitigation: Automatically veto trades that fail specific criteria such as low liquidity (under $25) or high-risk profiles.
• Portfolio Discipline: Enforce bankroll management with predefined sizing rules (3% to 10% based on conviction scores).
• Counter-Argument Documentation: Force the AI to articulate why a trade might fail, ensuring that bias is minimized before any entry.
• Decision Auditing: Maintain a standard format for tracking your trade rationale over time.

Example Prompts

1. "Perform a trade validation for the Polymarket entry on 'Will Bitcoin reach $100k by year end?' at 65 cents. Here is the current order book and my internal research."
2. "Run the 10-dimension scoring framework on the latest Kalshi interest rate hike prediction. I need a full scorecard and the mandatory counter-arguments."
3. "Evaluate this trade: I want to go long on 'Candidate X wins' with $50. Calculate the weighted score, confirm it passes the liquidity test, and provide my recommended position size based on your risk rules."

Tips & Limitations

• Strict Adherence: The framework is designed to be uncompromising. If a dimension scores below 4/10, do not attempt to justify the trade; the veto is absolute.
• Liquidity Awareness: Always verify that the market liquidity is above the $25 threshold. If the market is too thin, you risk being unable to close your position effectively.
• Scope: This skill is strictly for prediction markets. Do not use this for general stock analysis or cryptocurrency trading (e.g., buying spot ETH), as those asset classes require different risk frameworks and volatility metrics.
• Circuit Breakers: Respect the daily $8 loss threshold. The system is designed to stop trading to prevent emotional recovery attempts, also known as revenge trading. Stop when the limit is hit and wait the full 24 hours.