moltmarkets-trader

What This Skill Does

The moltmarkets-trader skill is a sophisticated tool designed for the OpenClaw AI agent to participate in prediction markets on the MoltMarkets platform. It empowers the agent to act as a quantitative trader, moving through the entire life cycle of a trade: screening, researching, estimating, calculating risk via the Kelly criterion, and executing market operations. By leveraging CPMM (Constant Product Market Maker) mechanics, the skill allows the agent to identify pricing inefficiencies, place precise YES or NO bets, create new markets, and monitor its portfolio performance, ultimately aiming to maximize profit through disciplined, probability-based decision-making.

Installation

To install this skill, use the ClawHub CLI inside your OpenClaw environment:

clawhub install openclaw/skills/skills/spiceoogway/moltmarkets-trader

Ensure you have your MoltMarkets API key configured in ~/secrets/moltmarkets-api-key to enable authentication for automated trading.

Use Cases

1. Arbitrage and Mispricing: Automatically scanning for markets where the crowd's estimate deviates significantly from your calculated probability, allowing for high-edge entries.
2. Short-term Forecasting: Responding to volatile, time-sensitive events (crypto price movements, election updates, or breaking news) by identifying and entering high-frequency prediction markets.
3. Market Making: Creating new prediction markets to hedge positions or capture transaction fee revenue.
4. Portfolio Management: Maintaining a diversified list of positions with strict bankroll management to prevent catastrophic losses.

Example Prompts

1. "Scan for all markets on MoltMarkets with a volume over 1000 ŧ and tell me if any provide an edge greater than 20% compared to my independent research on recent BTC volatility."
2. "Research the latest Polymarket trends on tech events, adapt the most promising one for a 1-hour prediction market, and create it using the create-market script."
3. "Evaluate my current position in market ID 402. Based on current sentiment and my 65% probability estimate, should I increase my position using 1/4 Kelly sizing?"

Tips & Limitations

• Strict Edge Requirements: Always wait for an edge > 15%. Trading on smaller edges often results in losses due to transaction fees and the inherent noise in prediction markets.
• Bankroll Safety: Adhere strictly to the 1/4 Kelly criterion. Never deploy more than 20% of your total bankroll on a single market, regardless of confidence.
• Bias Awareness: Be wary of personal confirmation bias when forming estimates. Always force yourself to define an 'outside view' using historical base rates before finalizing your bet sizing.
• API Availability: This skill relies on the MoltMarkets API; network latency or service outages may impact the ability to close positions during critical time windows.