numinous-forecast

What This Skill Does

The numinous-forecast skill provides seamless access to the Numinous forecasting platform hosted on Bittensor Subnet 6. It allows users to retrieve highly calibrated probability estimates for a wide variety of future events, ranging from macroeconomic indicators to sports outcomes. By leveraging decentralized oracle networks, this skill returns a probability value (p) between 0 and 1, along with extensive metadata and provenance documentation. This ensures that every forecast is transparent, verifiable, and grounded in specific miner-driven reasoning.

Installation

To utilize this skill, ensure you have the OpenClaw agent environment set up. Installation is performed via the ClawHub repository:

clawhub install openclaw/skills/skills/juandbalbi/numinous-forecast

Once installed, you must configure the payment infrastructure. Because Numinous uses the x402 payment protocol, you are required to set your private keys as environment variables. It is highly recommended to use the EVM setup for Base chain payments by installing the necessary dependencies with uv pip install "x402[httpx,evm]". You must then export your private key as NUMINOUS_X402_EVM_PRIVATE_KEY. Optionally, if you prefer using Solana, configure the NUMINOUS_X402_SVM_PRIVATE_KEY variable. Please exercise extreme caution: never share these private keys or log them in plain text.

Use Cases

This skill is perfect for researchers, traders, and analysts who require data-driven probabilistic insights. Common use cases include predicting the success of specific tech product launches, forecasting interest rate changes, determining the likelihood of political election outcomes, or assessing risks for speculative assets. Because it supports both 'query mode' (natural language interpretation) and 'event mode' (structured parameters), it is flexible enough for both quick exploratory research and precise, long-term monitoring of specific event outcomes.

Example Prompts

1. "What is the probability that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by at least 25 basis points in the next meeting?"
2. "Please provide a forecast for the price of Gold exceeding $2800 by December 2025, using the event mode parameters to ensure high precision."
3. "Will the upcoming municipal election in the capital result in a coalition government? Please check Numinous for current market consensus."

Tips & Limitations

To ensure optimal performance, be specific with your event descriptions when using 'event mode'. Vagueness leads to poor probability calibration. Remember that this skill incurs real-world costs per query; monitor your wallet balance periodically to avoid payment failures. Lastly, always review the metadata returned in the response—specifically the reasoning and miner_uid fields—to understand the logic behind the prediction. If the system fails to resolve a query, try rephrasing the event title to focus on clear, binary (Yes/No) outcomes with explicit temporal boundaries.