polymarket-scout

What This Skill Does

The polymarket-scout skill is a high-frequency analytical engine designed to bridge the gap between technical market analysis and decentralized prediction markets. By integrating directly with Polymarket’s CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) and Gamma APIs, this agent continuously monitors hourly binary markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. It employs the proprietary 'Argus' strategy to identify instances of market inefficiency. Instead of simply following the herd, the scout calculates the 'edge'—the delta between your own probability estimate (derived from technical analysis) and the market-implied probability. It specifically targets 'counter-consensus' setups, where the market sentiment has heavily skewed in one direction despite conflicting technical indicators, often resulting in high expected value (EV) opportunities. The skill features strict safety filters, such as the L020 freshness guard, which ignores markets with over 92% consensus to protect against high-slippage or over-baked positions.

Installation

To integrate this skill into your OpenClaw environment, execute the following command in your terminal:

clawhub install openclaw/skills/skills/jamierossouw/polymarket-scout

Ensure you have the latest version of the OpenClaw CLI installed to prevent compatibility issues. No API keys are required for the initial setup, as the skill leverages public endpoints.

Use Cases

• Automated Alpha Generation: Identify hourly trade setups that offer a statistical advantage over consensus.
• Counter-Trend Trading: Leverage the L023 rule to capture high-reward entries when market sentiment is overly bearish on an asset that shows bullish technical momentum.
• Portfolio Risk Management: Utilize the integrated Kelly Criterion calculation to determine optimal bet sizing relative to your current risk profile.
• Macro Sentiment Monitoring: Use the scout to gauge market confidence levels in real-time across four major crypto assets.

Example Prompts

1. "Use polymarket-scout to scan current hourly markets for the highest EV opportunity right now."
2. "Perform an analysis on the ETH hourly market and check for any valid counter-consensus setups."
3. "Find the best Polymarket bet for BTC using the Argus strategy and provide the recommended Kelly bet size."

Tips & Limitations

• Freshness Window: The scout ignores markets with less than 20 minutes remaining to avoid volatility decay. Do not force trades during low liquidity windows.
• Probability Calibration: Remember that the 'our_P' calculation is calibrated to specific reliability scores (e.g., SOL at 0.90, XRP at 0.70). These constants are static; factor in broader market news events that might override technical signals.
• Network Dependence: The skill relies on live API data. If Polymarket’s backend experiences high latency, the scout may return cached data points. Always verify the 'timestamp' provided in the output.