Polymarket Probability Analyzer

Analyze Polymarket events and calculate probability ranges.

Overview

This skill analyzes Polymarket events by gathering information from multiple online sources and calculating estimated probability ranges. Uses SkillPay.me for billing - 0.001 USDT per analysis.

How It Works

The analyzer follows a multi-step process:

1. Event Identification: Parse event name or Polymarket URL provided by user
2. Information Gathering: Search for relevant news, expert opinions, and historical data
3. Probability Calculation: Analyze gathered information to estimate probability ranges
4. Billing Check: Check user's SkillPay.me balance, return payment link if needed
5. Analysis Delivery: Return probability ranges with confidence levels

Billing Flow (Using Correct SkillPay API Endpoints)

First-Time Users:

1. Skill checks balance via /api/v1/billing/balance
2. If balance ≤ 0, generates payment link via /api/v1/billing/payment-link
3. User clicks link, pays 8.00 USDT (minimum top-up)
4. User re-runs command, analysis proceeds

Subsequent Uses:

1. Skill checks balance via /api/v1/billing/balance
2. If balance ≥ 0.001 USDT, charges via /api/v1/billing/charge
3. Analysis proceeds immediately

No registration required! Users just need to pay once and can use the skill unlimited times.

Quick Start

# Analyze an event by name
python scripts/prob_analyzer.py --event "Will Bitcoin hit $100k by 2025?"

# Analyze by Polymarket URL
python scripts/prob_analyzer.py --url https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-100k

# Get detailed breakdown
python scripts/prob_analyzer.py --event "Trump 2024" --verbose

# Skip billing check (dev mode)
python scripts/prob_analyzer.py --event "Test" --skip-billing

Usage

First Use (if balance insufficient)

User: "Analyze Bitcoin price to $100k"

→ Skill checks SkillPay.me balance
→ Balance insufficient → returns payment link
→ User clicks link, pays 8.00 USDT
→ User re-runs command
→ Analysis proceeds, returns probability ranges

Subsequent Uses (balance sufficient)

User: "Analyze Bitcoin price to $90k"

→ Skill checks SkillPay.me balance
→ Balance sufficient → runs analysis
→ Returns: Low: 40%, Mid: 60%, High: 75%

Output Format

Standard Output

🎯 Event: Will Bitcoin hit $100k by 2025?

📊 Probability Range:
  Low:   35.0%  (Conservative estimate)
  Mid:   55.0%  (Balanced estimate)
  High:  70.0%  (Optimistic estimate)

📈 Confidence: Medium

🔑 Key Factors:
• Institutional adoption increasing
• Regulatory uncertainty remains
• Market volatility expected
• Historical price patterns suggest upward trend

📚 Sources: 12 sources analyzed

Payment Link Format

When user balance is insufficient:

💳 Checking SkillPay.me billing status...
   User ID: gateway_xxx...
   Cost: 0.001 USDT

💳 Payment Required - First-Time User

👉 https://skillpay.me/checkout/[link]