polymarket

What This Skill Does

The Polymarket skill for OpenClaw provides a direct interface to the Polymarket prediction market API, enabling users to fetch real-time data on event probabilities, betting odds, and market liquidity. By leveraging the gamma-api.polymarket.com endpoint, this skill transforms complex market data into human-readable insights. It allows you to search across thousands of prediction markets, track 24-hour trading volumes, and monitor specific outcomes for political, economic, and cultural events. The skill simplifies the process of checking sentiment by translating raw price feeds into clear probability percentages, helping users understand the market-implied likelihood of various future occurrences.

Installation

To integrate this skill into your OpenClaw environment, execute the following command in your terminal:

clawhub install openclaw/skills/skills/dannyshmueli/polymarket-api

Ensure that your OpenClaw installation is up-to-date and that you have the necessary permissions to execute scripts located in the skills/polymarket/scripts/ directory. Once installed, the polymarket.py script will be accessible via the agent's command interface.

Use Cases

This skill is ideal for researchers, financial analysts, and curious individuals looking for objective probability estimates for news events. Key use cases include:

• Political Forecasting: Monitoring election win probabilities based on real-time market data.
• Economic Sentiment Analysis: Assessing market predictions for interest rate changes or inflationary trends.
• Trend Tracking: Identifying high-liquidity markets to gauge which topics are currently driving the most betting volume.
• Automated Reporting: Integrating market data into broader analysis workflows to compare betting odds against traditional polling data.

Example Prompts

1. "Check the current betting odds for the next presidential election on Polymarket."
2. "What are the top 5 most traded markets on Polymarket by 24-hour volume right now?"
3. "Search for markets related to Bitcoin price and provide the current probability of it hitting $100k."

Tips & Limitations

• Interpretation: Always look at the total volume before trusting a price. Markets with low liquidity may show volatile prices that do not accurately represent real-world consensus.
• Probability: Remember that outcomePrices are expressed as decimals between 0 and 1. A price of 0.65 represents a 65% perceived probability of the 'Yes' outcome.
• Data Scope: This skill provides read-only access to public API data and cannot place bets or manage accounts. It is strictly for information retrieval and analytical purposes.
• Refresh Frequency: While the data is real-time, market prices change rapidly; ensure you trigger the skill immediately before needing the data to ensure the highest accuracy.