manifold
Read and trade on Manifold Markets (search markets, fetch probabilities, inspect users/bets, place bets/sell/comment). Never place a bet/sell/comment without explicit user confirmation.
Install via CLI (Recommended)
clawhub install openclaw/skills/skills/crotalus/manifoldWhat This Skill Does
The Manifold skill allows your OpenClaw agent to interact directly with the Manifold Markets prediction platform. It provides a comprehensive bridge to the platform's REST API, enabling your agent to search for specific markets, retrieve live betting probabilities, inspect user portfolios, and analyze historical bet data. Beyond simple data retrieval, this skill enables the agent to participate in markets by placing bets, selling existing positions, or posting comments, provided that the user has explicitly authorized such actions through a secure confirmation flow.
Installation
To integrate this skill into your environment, run the following command in your terminal:
clawhub install openclaw/skills/skills/crotalus/manifold
Ensure your MANIFOLD_API_KEY is set either as an environment variable or configured in ~/.openclaw/openclaw.json under skills.manifold.apiKey to enable write operations.
Use Cases
- Forecasting Analysis: Use the agent to stay updated on the probability of specific political or technological events as predicted by the crowd.
- Portfolio Management: Automatically fetch a user's betting history and analyze their performance metrics across different market types.
- Market Monitoring: Set up automated alerts to track fluctuations in market probabilities for niche interests like AI safety or biotechnology.
- Interactive Trading: Use natural language to express interest in a market, have the agent pull the live details, and finalize a trade only after reviewing the projected impact.
Example Prompts
- "What are the current probabilities for the top three AI safety markets on Manifold right now?"
- "Look up the market with the slug 'will-agiv-be-achieved-by-2030' and tell me the current YES/NO split."
- "Can you check my account balance and show me the last 10 bets I placed?"
Tips & Limitations
- Safety First: The skill is designed with a strict 'Human-in-the-loop' paradigm. The agent will never execute a transaction without a secondary confirmation of the specific market details and amounts.
- Data Handling: Binary markets provide a direct probability field, while other market types may require complex interpretation. Always verify the market type when fetching details.
- Rate Limiting: Be mindful of the Manifold API rate limits when scripting large-scale data harvesting or frequent monitoring tasks.
Metadata
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Find the right skillPaste this into your clawhub.json to enable this plugin.
{
"plugins": {
"official-crotalus-manifold": {
"enabled": true,
"auto_update": true
}
}
}Tags(AI)
Flags: network-access, external-api