simmer-weather

What This Skill Does

The simmer-weather skill is a specialized agentic tool designed for the Polymarket prediction market platform. It leverages real-time weather data from NOAA to automate trading strategies based on temperature fluctuations. By utilizing the Simmer API, this skill monitors specific geographic regions, calculates trading opportunities based on price thresholds, and executes buy or sell orders automatically. It mimics the successful trading methodologies popularized by high-volume weather market participants, providing users with a sophisticated way to manage exposure to temperature-related market events.

Installation

Installation is handled via the OpenClaw CLI. Run the following command: clawhub install openclaw/skills/skills/adlai88/simmer-weather. Once installed, you must provide your Simmer API key (obtained from simmer.markets/dashboard) by setting the SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable. Ensure that your system environment is configured with the necessary trade parameters, such as SIMMER_WEATHER_ENTRY, SIMMER_WEATHER_EXIT, and SIMMER_WEATHER_LOCATIONS to tailor the agent to your preferred risk tolerance and regional focus.

Use Cases

This skill is ideal for quantitative traders looking to automate systematic betting strategies without manual intervention. Common use cases include:

• Automated hedging or speculation on temperature anomalies in major US cities like NYC, Chicago, or Miami.
• Implementing gopfan2-style, high-frequency, small-dollar trading strategies to capture spread differences.
• Performing data-driven market entry when weather forecasts deviate significantly from market pricing.
• Portfolio management by using smart-sizing features to dynamically allocate capital based on current account balance.

Example Prompts

1. "OpenClaw, please run a dry run of the simmer-weather trader for NYC and Seattle to see if there are any profitable entries."
2. "Update my simmer-weather configuration to use a 0.20 entry threshold and 0.50 exit threshold, then start the trader in live mode with smart sizing enabled."
3. "Check the status of my current weather positions and print the account balance using the status script."

Tips & Limitations

• Always start with dry runs before enabling --live mode to ensure your thresholds align with current market volatility.
• Use the --smart-sizing flag to prevent over-leveraging your account during high-volatility weather events.
• Be aware that weather markets can be highly volatile; the skill includes safeguards like slippage checks and flip-flop detection, but no strategy can guarantee profit.
• The skill is limited by the provided NOAA data refresh rates; ensure your execution frequency is set to a reasonable interval to avoid excessive API calls.