polymarket-weather-trader

What This Skill Does

The polymarket-weather-trader is a specialized OpenClaw agent skill designed to automate trading on Polymarket’s weather-related prediction markets. By integrating NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) forecast data via the Simmer API, the agent analyzes meteorological trends and executes trades based on user-defined risk parameters. The skill manages the end-to-end lifecycle of a trade: scanning for market opportunities, performing price trend analysis, calculating position sizes, and executing orders on-chain using the user's private key. Inspired by the highly successful gopfan2 strategy, it provides a structured framework for quantitative weather betting.

Installation

1. Install the package via the CLI: clawhub install openclaw/skills/skills/adlai88/polymarket-weather-trader.
2. Configure your environment variables: Obtain your SIMMER_API_KEY from the Simmer dashboard and provide your WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY for on-chain execution.
3. Define your risk profile: Set SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_TRADES to limit exposure and decide if you want to enable SIMMER_WEATHER_BINARY_ONLY mode to avoid complex range-bucket events.
4. Initialize the agent: Run the initial setup script to verify connection to the Simmer API and ensure your wallet has sufficient USDC balance.

Use Cases

• Automated Weather Arbitrage: Capitalize on discrepancies between market prices and official NOAA temperature forecasts.
• Portfolio Diversification: Use weather as an uncorrelated asset class to hedge or grow your crypto portfolio based on real-world climate data.
• Passive Strategy Execution: Automate the gopfan2-style strategy to run 24/7 without manual intervention, ensuring entry and exit thresholds are hit even while you sleep.

Example Prompts

• "OpenClaw, start the weather trader for NYC and set my entry threshold to 12 cents with a maximum position of 5 dollars per trade."
• "What is the current status of my weather market positions and have there been any significant NOAA forecast updates today?"
• "Enable binary-only mode for the current weather markets and run a simulation to see how the strategy would have performed over the last 48 hours."

Tips & Limitations

• Safeguards: Always utilize the built-in context safeguards to detect price slippage or extreme time decay. Weather markets are highly sensitive to forecast shifts; do not trade money you cannot afford to lose.
• Smart Sizing: Utilize the --smart-sizing feature to scale positions relative to your total USDC balance, preventing over-exposure during high-volatility weather events.
• Limitations: The skill depends on external APIs. If NOAA or Simmer goes down, the agent will pause execution. Regularly monitor the logs for potential API latency or wallet errors.