Polymarket Nothing-Ever-Happens Trader

Buy NO on standalone yes/no Polymarket markets priced below a configurable cap.

This is a template. The default logic buys NO on any non-sports standalone market where NO costs ≤5¢. Remix it with custom filters (minimum volume thresholds, specific categories, date ranges) or pair it with a signal to skip markets where YES might actually happen. The skill handles plumbing (discovery, import, fee checks, execution). You define which markets to trade.

Based on: sterlingcrispin/nothing-ever-happens

The Thesis

On most standalone binary prediction markets, the event resolves NO — nothing dramatic happens. Markets systematically overprice dramatic YES outcomes. When NO is trading at 3¢–5¢, you're getting 20–33x payout if you're right, and the base rate of "nothing happens" is often much higher than the implied 3–5%.

What It Does

1. Scans Polymarket events via Gamma API for standalone yes/no markets
2. Filters out sports, grouped events, low-liquidity markets
3. Selects markets where NO ask ≤ price cap (default 5¢)
4. Imports each candidate into Simmer
5. Checks fees (only trades zero-fee markets) and safeguards
6. Buys NO via Simmer SDK, sized by max_bet_usd

Setup Flow

When user asks to install or configure this skill:

1. Install the Simmer SDK

   pip install simmer-sdk
   

2. Ask for Simmer API key

   • They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab
   • Store in environment as SIMMER_API_KEY

3. Ask for wallet private key (required for live trading)

   • This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC)
   • Store in environment as WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY
   • The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed
   • Not needed for $SIM paper trading on the Simmer venue

Quick Commands

# Scan for candidates (no trades)
python nothing_ever_happens.py --scan

# Dry run — show what would trade
python nothing_ever_happens.py

# Execute real trades
python nothing_ever_happens.py --live

# Quiet mode (for cron — only prints on trades/errors)
python nothing_ever_happens.py --live --quiet

# Show config
python nothing_ever_happens.py --config

# Update config
python nothing_ever_happens.py --set price_cap=0.03

Configuration