polymarket-sports-edge

What This Skill Does

The polymarket-sports-edge skill is a sophisticated arbitrage engine designed to exploit market inefficiencies between professional sportsbooks and prediction markets. By leveraging The Odds API as an authoritative data source for "sharp" market sentiment, the agent continuously monitors Polymarket sports listings. When a significant statistical gap (divergence) is identified between the consensus bookmaker odds and the Polymarket price, the agent automatically executes a trade on the underpriced outcome. This creates a systematic strategy for capturing value, assuming that professional sportsbook odds represent the most accurate probability distributions while Polymarket prices may suffer from retail liquidity gaps or market sentiment skew.

Installation

To integrate this skill into your OpenClaw environment, execute the following command in your terminal:

clawhub install openclaw/skills/skills/0xjims/polymarket-sports-edge

Once installed, you must configure your environment variables. You will need a valid SIMMER_API_KEY for market interactions and a THE_ODDS_API_KEY from the-odds-api.com. Configure these via your environment or agent config file before running. Ensure you start with LIVE=false (the default) to conduct a dry-run of the logic to observe how your configured MIN_DIVERGENCE threshold interacts with current market volatility.

Use Cases

• Automated Arbitrage: Maintain a portfolio of positions on Polymarket by systematically identifying mispriced binary outcomes where the sportsbook consensus suggests a much higher win probability than the current market price.
• Market Research: Utilize the agent in dry-run mode to gather intelligence on sports market liquidity and identify which sports consistently exhibit the most inefficiencies.
• Alpha Generation: Serve as an early-warning signal for traders to investigate specific games where institutional "sharp" money (represented by sportsbook lines) diverges significantly from crowd-sourced prediction markets.

Example Prompts

• "Hey OpenClaw, run the sports edge skill in dry-run mode for all NBA and NFL games to see if there are any opportunities over 10% divergence."
• "Update the sports edge config to prioritize MLB games only and increase the minimum divergence threshold to 15% to capture only high-conviction signals."
• "Start live trading for the sports edge skill with a position size of 25 SIM and report back on all executed trades."

Tips & Limitations

• Threshold Tuning: The MIN_DIVERGENCE is the most critical lever. Setting it too low will lead to excessive trades with high transaction costs, while setting it too high may result in zero opportunities. Start at 0.08 and adjust based on your findings.
• API Limits: The free tier of The Odds API is limited to 500 requests per month. If you track many sports, you will hit this limit quickly. Consider using specific sport filters in the SPORTS variable to manage your quota.
• Risk Management: Polymarket involves real financial exposure. Always monitor your active positions and remember that sports markets can shift rapidly due to player injuries or late-breaking news which your data sources might not immediately reflect.